Britain’s largest retailers have sounded the alarm over rising food prices, attributing this inflationary pressure to the impact of an unprecedented heatwave severely affecting harvest yields. The latest UK heatwave is pushing temperatures close to record highs, a factor widely reported as disrupting the production of fresh produce and staples.

In June 2025, UK food inflation surged to 3.7%, marking its highest point since the previous March. This rise was largely driven by dry weather conditions that harmed fruit and vegetable harvests. The Met Office has recorded the warmest and sunniest spring on record in the UK, highlighting an unusual weather pattern with dry spells that damaged arable crops such as wheat and barley, despite some early gains in crops like strawberries and tomatoes. The British Retail Consortium (BRC) noted that this weather anomaly also increased supply chain costs, which were compounded by rising wholesale prices, higher labour expenses, and the UK’s heavy reliance on imports—around 65% of fresh produce is sourced from abroad. Globally, food prices surged by 6% annually in May, with dairy and vegetable oil seeing steep rises. Such cost pressures affected prices in both fresh food, which rose by 3.2%, and ambient food, which went up by 4.3%. This surge in food prices contributed to a return of broader retail inflation to 0.4% annually in June, driven mostly by food, whereas non-food items continued to see deflation. The ongoing rise in food prices poses a challenge for the Bank of England’s monetary policy, potentially restricting the scale of interest rate reductions despite stronger wage growth. Industry leaders have also warned that further cost increases from national insurance and wage hikes could add more strain on both retailers and consumers.

Looking back to earlier trends in 2025, food inflation reached a one-year high in May with a 2.8% annual increase, marking the fourth consecutive month of rises. This was mainly driven by escalating costs in fresh foods such as wholesale beef, alongside operational expenses estimated at £5 billion resulting from employer national insurance increases and minimum wage rises effective from April. Globally, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization reported a 7.6% spike in food prices in April, propelled chiefly by vegetable oils and dairy products. Despite the food inflation rise, non-food grocery items saw a deflation of -1.5%, keeping overall grocery inflation slightly negative. Retailers have faced the dual challenge of inflation and weak consumer confidence, prompting efforts to stimulate spending during the summer months. Bank of England officials have acknowledged the persistent pressure on households from both energy and food prices, even as wages outpace inflation.

The context of these recent inflationary pressures can be better understood against the backdrop of climate-induced disruptions to UK agriculture. Earlier in 2024, extreme weather events linked to climate change significantly affected local farming. Record rainfall forced many UK farmers to delay or miss planting critical spring crops such as potatoes, wheat, and vegetables. For some areas, crops that were planted suffered poor quality or rotted in the ground. Additionally, adverse wet weather led to high lamb mortality and reduced dairy milk production, compounding production challenges. Agricultural organisations have highlighted a growing reliance on imports, but similar adverse conditions across Europe—in countries like France and Germany—and droughts elsewhere, such as Morocco, threaten the availability of imported produce. The president of the National Farmers’ Union warned that food markets had “collapsed” under these punishing conditions, with imports expected to rise substantially.

These contemporary issues echo similar patterns observed during earlier European heatwaves, such as the one in 2018, when scorching temperatures and drought severely damaged crops across the continent. At that time, reports from major London markets described steep price increases in vegetables like broccoli, carrots, and lettuce, with some growers forced to import from overseas to meet demand. Supermarket prices for common salad items rose noticeably, while suppliers noted poor yields and ongoing challenges due to the heatwave’s severity. The Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board then recorded the driest lead-up to the harvest in 80 years, marking the enduring vulnerability of UK agriculture to extreme climatic events. Many plants ceased growing once temperatures exceeded 25°C, particularly those without irrigation, illustrating how temperature extremes directly hinder crop development.

Overall, these developments underscore a persistent trend where climate variability, exemplified by heatwaves and drought, combines with economic forces such as rising labour costs and import dependencies to drive food inflation in the UK. As weather patterns become increasingly unpredictable and extreme, both consumers and retailers face continued challenges in managing food prices and supply chain stability.